Track Bias (Dirt - AW)

 BEL 09/17/11 Track bias was 4 lengths slower than normal (slowed down 2 lengths)   
 AP  09/17/11 Track bias was 4 lengths slower than normal (slowed down 2 lengths)   
 CRC 09/17/11 Track bias was 3 lengths slower than normal (slowed down 3 lengths)   
 TP  09/17/11 Track bias was normal                                                 
 MTH 09/17/11 Track bias was normal                                                 

5 lengths faster than normal is very fast and helps the front-runners.
5 lengths slower than normal is very heavy and tiring for front-runners.

Notes: If overnight weather changes, data may not be reliable.

Using The Bias Report

We have covered how pace effect the outcome of a race. Now, we touch on another factor, track bias.

Two handicappers can watch a horse win a race gate to wire but only the one with the right data can decide if there is a track bias.

To collect this data, we should first determine each horse's running style and the race shape. This will narrow down which races to monitor for a bias. Next, we determine what the pace and fractions of the race should be.

Now that we have this data, we have something to compare the actual race pace and fractions to. On any given day, track surface is worked on by the crew or the nature and varies a little or a lot from the previous day. The only way that we can benefit from a bias is knowing the bias and the expected direction of this bias. This is where track bias report comes in to play. We do all the work so you don't have to.

First, we look at what the bias report shows. Then we show you how to use our bias and pace figures to eveluate the contender's winning chances.

To start a week, all bias figures are zeroed out on Wednesdays due to dark Mondays and Tuesdays. Each day, a bias figure is calculated for the running tracks.

Most tracks change by one or two points up or down everyday. This change is not what we are looking for. What becomes useful information is when bias increase or decrease in one direction. When a 2 length bias is not enough to show a strong bias, a 2 length bias and an increasing trend points to a stronger bias that may be worth watching for.

Figures in the 3 to 5 range are what effect the outcome of a race most. This is when you see a front running favorite in good form fade in the stretch or a long shot who usually tires late taking a race gate to wire.

Taking advantage of this bias figure:
When we see a figure in the 2 to 3 point range and an increasing trend, we start to watch the horses that should benefit or be bothered by this bias early in the card. If we see a couple of front runners in a race tire late when the pace numbers show that the should not have on an expected slow track, we know the bias is as expected. Usually we watch a couple more races before final decision.

Now that we have determined that a bias exist, let's see how these numbers translate to an advantaged running style.
Let's call a zero normal or average.

1 and 2 are slower or faster than average but not enough bias that a sound horse can not overcome.

3 lengths slower than normal and above are tiring to front runners and favor pressers and late runners. This range is the second most profitable bias due to the fact that late running horses are always disadvantaged by traffic.

3 lengths faster than normal and above benefit the front runners who will carry their speed much longer. Lone speed on the lead may not come back to the field and take the race at high odds. This is the most profitable bias.

 P    Ang   EP TSP  LP PACE
 3    *     82  91  97   90
 7    *     94 101  72   89
 5    *     93  98  85   92
 1          90  92  71   84
 1A         85  88  88   87
 4          86  94  84   88
 2          78  90  94   87
 6          86  94  88   89

Using pace numbers:
If you are not familiar with our detail report format, here is a brief description of the pace section. First a race from each horse's past performance lines is selected.
Early (EP), Turn (TSP) , Late and Total pace (PACE) figures are then calculated. Looking at this data, you can visualize how a race should unfold.

In this example, numbers 5 and 7 are the front runners and will be running together till late in the race. 7 does not have the late pace comparable to 5 but it probably won't matter if there was a faster than normal track bias.
But on a slow track, both 5 and 7 will tire late and 3 should win the race with a little racing luck.
When we know of a bias, we can narrow our win contenders and not waste anything on horses that have a low or no chance of winning.

Notes:
Track bias changes dramaticly with rain. A slow track will become slower, a fast track becomes faster first then slows down. All this usually happen during a race card. Bias figure is most reliable when not dealing with bad weather.